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What's in the Cards for Geron (GERN) This Earnings Season?
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Geron Corporation (GERN - Free Report) is expected to report first-quarter 2018 results on May 8.
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 25%.
Geron’s shares have significantly outperformed the industry so far this year. The stock has gained 111.1% while the industry witnessed a decline of 10.9% in the said time frame.
Pipeline in Focus
Geron’s revenues solely comprise license fees and royalties as it has no approved product in its portfolio. Moreover, it has only one candidate in its pipeline, imetelstat. Hence, investor focus will remain on any updates related to it.
Geron is developing imetelstat in collaboration with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) for treating patients with hematologic myeloid malignancies like myelofibrosis (“MF”), myelodysplastic syndromes (“MDS”) and acute myelogenous leukemia (“AML”).
Two late-stage studies for imetelstat are ongoing – IMbark (phase II) for the treatment of MF, and IMerge (phase II/III) for the treatment of MDS.
In the fourth quarter of 2017, Geron expanded the Part I of IMerge and enrolled 20 additional patients in a refined MDS population to confirm the clinical benefit and safety observed earlier. Consequently, research & development expenses are expected to be on the higher side in the soon-to-be reported quarter.
Janssen will decide on continuation of part II of IMerge based on data from expanded part I.
In March 2018, Geron announced that the phase II IMbark study will be continued without modifications based on the clinical benefit and a potential overall survival benefit observed during the third internal review. However, J&J is planning to amend the protocol of the study to allow long-term treatment of patients. A decision on the continuation of the study is expected to be announced in the third quarter of 2018.
We note that J&J did not provide any update on imetelstat when it reported first-quarter results last month.
Investors are solely banking on the continuation and success of these two studies. We expect the company to provide an update on the path forward for imetelstat development on the first-quarter conference call.
Surprise History
Geron’s performance in the last four quarters was mixed, with the company surpassing expectations twice, meeting the same once and missing once. The average positive surprise over the last four quarters is 3.75%.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Geron is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 4 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Although Geron’s Zacks Rank #2 increases the predictive power of ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Here are some biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Array BioPharma Inc. (ARRY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.19% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 9.
5 Medical Stocks to Buy Now
Zacks names 5 companies poised to ride a medical breakthrough that is targeting cures for leukemia, AIDS, muscular dystrophy, hemophilia, and other conditions.
New products in this field are already generating substantial revenue and even more wondrous treatments are in the pipeline. Early investors could realize exceptional profits.
Image: Bigstock
What's in the Cards for Geron (GERN) This Earnings Season?
Geron Corporation (GERN - Free Report) is expected to report first-quarter 2018 results on May 8.
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 25%.
Geron’s shares have significantly outperformed the industry so far this year. The stock has gained 111.1% while the industry witnessed a decline of 10.9% in the said time frame.
Pipeline in Focus
Geron’s revenues solely comprise license fees and royalties as it has no approved product in its portfolio. Moreover, it has only one candidate in its pipeline, imetelstat. Hence, investor focus will remain on any updates related to it.
Geron is developing imetelstat in collaboration with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) for treating patients with hematologic myeloid malignancies like myelofibrosis (“MF”), myelodysplastic syndromes (“MDS”) and acute myelogenous leukemia (“AML”).
Two late-stage studies for imetelstat are ongoing – IMbark (phase II) for the treatment of MF, and IMerge (phase II/III) for the treatment of MDS.
In the fourth quarter of 2017, Geron expanded the Part I of IMerge and enrolled 20 additional patients in a refined MDS population to confirm the clinical benefit and safety observed earlier. Consequently, research & development expenses are expected to be on the higher side in the soon-to-be reported quarter.
Janssen will decide on continuation of part II of IMerge based on data from expanded part I.
In March 2018, Geron announced that the phase II IMbark study will be continued without modifications based on the clinical benefit and a potential overall survival benefit observed during the third internal review. However, J&J is planning to amend the protocol of the study to allow long-term treatment of patients. A decision on the continuation of the study is expected to be announced in the third quarter of 2018.
We note that J&J did not provide any update on imetelstat when it reported first-quarter results last month.
Investors are solely banking on the continuation and success of these two studies. We expect the company to provide an update on the path forward for imetelstat development on the first-quarter conference call.
Surprise History
Geron’s performance in the last four quarters was mixed, with the company surpassing expectations twice, meeting the same once and missing once. The average positive surprise over the last four quarters is 3.75%.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Geron is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 4 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Although Geron’s Zacks Rank #2 increases the predictive power of ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Geron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Geron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise | Geron Corporation Quote
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +36.94% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 11. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Array BioPharma Inc. (ARRY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.19% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 9.
5 Medical Stocks to Buy Now
Zacks names 5 companies poised to ride a medical breakthrough that is targeting cures for leukemia, AIDS, muscular dystrophy, hemophilia, and other conditions.
New products in this field are already generating substantial revenue and even more wondrous treatments are in the pipeline. Early investors could realize exceptional profits.
Click here to see the 5 stocks >>